Turner victory highlights
Obama's slippage among Jews

Analysis: Democrat's downfall in NY's 9th district shows US president's waning support among American Jewish community no longer anecdotal.
 

Up until Tuesday night’s surprise victory of Republican Bob Turner over Democratic David Weprin in the heavily Jewish and Democratic 9th New York Congressional District, news of US President Barack Obama’s waning support among American Jews was largely anecdotal.

Every once in a while stories of traditionally-Democratic Jews articulating deep concern for Obama’s treatment of Israel would appear in the general media or US political websites. There was also the occasional story about Jews who donate large amounts to the Democratic Party saying that as a result of their disenchantment with the White House’s Middle East policies, in the next election cycle they would think twice.


In addition to the anecdotal evidence, there were also the extrapolatory proofs.

Number-crunchers looked at the exit polls from the 2008 Presidential election that showed that Obama took 78 percent of the Jewish vote, compared that with polls that showed the Democrats took “just” 66% of the Jewish vote in the midterm 2010 election, noted that the president’s approval rating in the summer among Jews was “only” 60%, and concluded that Obama was losing the Jews.

Not all the Jews – not even a majority of the Jews – but enough to make a difference in the 2012 presidential election.

Turner’s victory over Weprin Tuesday showed that this thesis no longer exists only in the anecdotal or extrapolatory realm.

Turner’s victory was the most serious sign of erosion to date in American-Jewish support for Obama; the most serious shot from the Jewish community across the White House’s bow; the most serious message from Jewish voters of concern about the president’s stand on Israel.

And while it is undeniable that Israel was not the only issue in the campaign, it is equally undeniable that it was among the top issues. The other major issue was the economy.

History has shown that as one specific factor, Israel is not enough to drive Jews to vote against a Democratic candidate.

But put Israel together with a faltering economy that is also impacting negatively on America’s Jews, and more Jews